Promoting economic and environmental resilience in the post-COVID-19 era through the city and regional on-road fuel sustainability development

How to control the global temperature rise within 1.5 °C in the post-COVID-19 era has attracted attention. Road transport accounts for nearly a quarter of global CO2 emissions, and the related sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions also trigger air pollution issues in population-intensive cities and areas. Many cities and states have announced a timetable for phasing out urban-based fossil fuel vehicles. By combining a Markov-chain model with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, the impacts of on-road energy structural change led by phasing out fossil fuel vehicles in the road transportation sector are evaluated. The impact of automobile emissions (both CO2 and SO2) on the environment is evaluated, taking into consideration of variation between cities, regions, and countries. Two other major driving forces in addition to CO2 emissions reduction in promoting fossil fuel vehicles' transition toward net-zero carbon are identified and analyzed with multiple different indicators. Under the framework of the DSGE model, climate policy instruments' effects on economic development, energy consumption, and their link to economic and environmental resilience are evaluated under exogenous shocks as well.

The discrepancies in the impacts of COVID-19 lockdowns on electricity consumption in China: Is the short-term pain worth it?

The COVID-19 pandemic caused severe economic contraction and paralyzed industrial activity. Despite a growing body of literature on the impacts of COVID-19 mitigation measures, scant evidence currently exists on the impacts of lockdowns on the economic and industrial activities of developing countries. Our study provides an empirical assessment of lockdown measures using 298,354 data points on daily electricity consumption in 396 sub-industries. To infer causal relationships, we employ difference-in-differences models that compare cities with and without lockdown policies and provide quantitative evidence on whether the long-term gain of lockdowns outweighs the short-term loss. The results show that lockdown policies led to a significant short-term drop in electricity consumption of 15.2% relative to the control group. However, the electricity loss under the no-lockdown scenario is 2.6 times larger than that under the strict lockdown scenario within 4 months of the outbreak. Discrepancies in the impacts among industries are identified, and even within the same industry, lockdowns have heterogeneous effects. The impact of lockdowns on small and medium-sized enterprises in developing countries is seriously underestimated, raising concerns about the distributional impact of subsidy measures. This study serves as a crucial reference for the government when facing public health emergencies and shocks to support better policies.

Impacts of international trade on global inequality of energy and water use.

We are not on track to meet the SDGs by 2030 despite considerable efforts. Sino-US trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic raise the tide of trade protection that may also go against SDGs. To explore how international trade affects SDGs, this study quantifies the impacts of international trade on global energy and water inequality by constructing resource-Gini-coefficients in terms of reserve, production, and consumption. We find that international trade alleviates global inequality in energy use, in which direct energy trade reduces the inequality significantly while nonenergy commodity trade aggravates it slightly. However, international trade has a pretty minor impact on improving global water inequality. The developing economies suffer a large amount of embodied energy and water outflows. For example, BRICS exported 712.3 Mtoe of embodied energy and 130.5 billion m3 of virtual water to the rest of the world, exceeding the sum of energy/water use in Germany and France. The developed economies, especially the USA and EU, outsource energy- and water-intensive commodities to reduce domestic energy shortage and water stress, roughly corresponding to India's energy use and two times of water use of South Africa.

“Inverted quarantine” in the face of environmental change: Initiative defensive behaviors against air pollution in China

People in China have become concerned with the health threats associated with severe air pollution. As a result, behavioural adjustments and pollutant filtration product implementation have become common means for people to cope with pollution threats in their daily lives. However, a systematic awareness of the basic characteristics and mechanisms of such behaviours is lacking. This paper focuses on how residents engage in inverted quarantine in response to air pollution. We examine in detail their behavioural responses by conducting a questionnaire survey. Results show that individual avoidance behaviours are quite diverse and combined. Masks have been identified as the most widely adopted filtration product with the lowest input costs. High-income groups have a higher tendency to purchase expensive filtering devices compared with low-income groups and prefer to combine multiple protection strategies. In addition to the driving effect of income, individual psychological perception plays an important role in the decision making of households. A lower public confidence in the government further encourages individual self-protection. These findings urge the government to enhance their air pollution control efforts and their timeliness of disclosing pollution information. The significant driving effects of individual cognition factors also call for a proper guidance to achieve a rational public perception of air pollution. Although the health benefits of using pollutant filtering devices have been widely discussed and proven, the increased energy consumption and other environmental impacts resulting from the use of such products are easily neglected. It demands the implementation of stricter market entrance, improved energy efficiency standards and enhanced waste management.

Critically Ill Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 in a Designated ICU: Clinical Features and Predictors for Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a worldwide pandemic outbreak with a high mortality. Prognostic factors of critically ill patients with COVID-19 have not been fully elucidated yet. METHODS: In the present study, 59 patients with COVID-19 from the intensive care unit of the Caidian Branch of Tongji Hospital were enrolled. Epidemiological, demographic, clinical, laboratory, radiological, treatment data, and clinical outcomes were collected. Prognostic factors were statistically defined. RESULTS: Of the 59 patients studied (67.4±11.3 years), 38 patients were male, 51 had underlying diseases, and 41 patients died during admission. Compared with the survivors, the deceased patients were of older age, had more smoking history, severer fatigue, and diarrhea, a higher incidence of multiple organ injuries, more deteriorative lymphopenia and thrombocytopenia, remarkably impaired cellular immune response, and strengthened cytokine release. Age higher than 70 (OR=2.76, 95% CI=1.45-5.23), arrhythmia (OR=4.76, 95% CI=1.59-14.25), and a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score above 4 (OR=5.16, 95% CI=1.29-20.55) were identified as risk factors for mortality of patients. CONCLUSION: Critically ill COVID-19 patients aged higher than 70, arrhythmia, or a SOFA score above 4 have a high risk of mortality, and need prior medical intervention.